Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
