Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
